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 Posté le: Ven Aoû 09, 2013 11:17 am Sujet du message: Oriental Fortune - investing more worried about Ch |
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Many investment banks worried about China's economy continued downward
7 月 15 日 10:00, China National Bureau of Statistics released the first half of the national data. One of the most interesting second quarter of 2013 China's GDP ( GDP ), despite the slowdown, but still an increase of 7.5%.
the data in line with market expectations. Bloomberg in at 7:00 on the 15th released forecast chart shows,adjustable clutch lever, the market in China is expected in the second quarter GDP growth of 7.6%. Therefore, the Bureau of Statistics data released, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.81 percent the day the highest, followed by a slight decline to close at 2059.39 points.
"as sluggish exports and the impact of the investment and manufacturing sentiment, China's GDP growth remained weak in the second quarter, however, most of the domestic demand sectors continue to achieve rapid growth, so as to alleviate the above-mentioned vulnerable in this context, service performance is far superior to the industrial sector, "RBS Bank , chief China economist at High Louis (Louis Kuijs) Comments said.
Although China second quarter GDP is still in line with expectations, but economists are more worried about is conveyed out of the data downlink signal that China's economy this year and next year's trends.
Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura Securities, China's media conference on the 15th, said Nomura China 2014 GDP growth forecast from 7.5% adjusted to 6.9%. "We believe that from the 2013 third and fourth quarter of 2014 to play in the second quarter, the central bank will cut each quarter deposit reserve rate 50 basis points, a total of down 200 basis points, "said Zhang Zhiwei.
Zhang Zhiwei said that China deleveraging process has only just begun, so monetary policy is tight. But in order to avoid re-staged in June "money shortage" event, the central bank will take "Gradually, gently deleveraging" approach.
Written by Dr JP Morgan chief China economist at the China 2013 GDP growth forecast from 7.6% down to 7.4%, the China 2014 GDP growth forecast from 7.7% down to 7.2%.
"Since the previous benchmark comparative data is very high, China in the second half under increasing pressure. fourth quarter we expect China's GDP growth may slow to 7 percent, but the second half of Chinese GDP growth or speed, "Written by Dr said.
China's huge shadow banking central bank's monetary policy is considered to be the tipping point. Citibank data show that in January this year, about the size of the shadow banking in China 28 trillion, accounting for China in 2012 54% of GDP. Barclays Bank estimates that the value of 25.6 trillion, equivalent to 49% of China's GDP last year.
Deutsche Bank Greater China chief economist Jun Ma to 2013 full-year GDP growth forecast from 7.9% down to 7.6%. He expects third-quarter GDP growth rate will decline year on year to 7.5%.
(Editor: DF083) |
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