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 Posté le: Sam Aoû 24, 2013 4:04 pm Sujet du message: Fed minutes put pressure on Asian currencies |
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{Fed minutes put pressure on Asian currencies}
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The Indian rupee hit a fresh record low and other emerging Asian currencies fell on Thursday as minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting indicated the US central bank could cut its stimulus as early as September.The rupee weakened past 65.00 per dollar, breaking its previous low of 64.5450 reached on Wednesday.Indonesia’s rupiah fell to another four-year low on corporate dollar demand and capital outflows.The Malaysian ringgit slid to its weakest in more than three years after the country had weaker-than-expected growth and a smaller current account surplus in the second quarter.Thailand’s baht also hit a three-year low on offshore selling, while the Philippine peso touched a two-month low on catch-up plays.Regional units found some relief as a survey of Chinese manufacturing sector activity in August produced the highest number in four months, adding to hopes of stabilization in the world’s No.2 economy.Still,longchamp sale, emerging Asian currencies stayed under pressure from fears over capital outflows amid expectations that the Fed may scale back its bond-buying program soon.‘’The rationale for this regional currency weakness stems from a less than robust Asian economic recovery burdening the regional current accounts, little evidence of strong net capital inflows on the portfolio front, and the prevailing developed market vs. emerging market dichotomy,’’ OCBC Bank said a client note.Emerging markets from Thailand to Turkey have come under pressure in recent weeks due to anticipation that the Fed will reduce its quantitative easing. Its stimulus generated a wave of cheap money moving into emerging market currencies, equities and bonds.The Fed minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers had different opinions as to when the central bank should start winding down its bond purchases.However, the minutes did not materially change the market’s expectation that the Fed could start tapering its $85-billion bond-buying program a month as early as September.RINGGITThe ringgit fell as much as 0.8 percent to 3.3325 per dollar, its lowest since June 2010.Malaysia’s current account surplus shrank in the second quarter and growth during the three months missed market expectations.On a technical chart, the Malaysian currency is seen weakening to 3.3345, the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement of its appreciation between 2009 and 2011.But it pared some of Thursday’s early losses with intervention spotted. Some traders and analysts said the current account data was not as bad as some feared.‘’We expect Malaysia’s current account surplus to rebound sharply in H2,’’ Barclays said in a note to clients, adding that the full-year surplus should reach $13.8 billion, or 4.4 percent of gross domestic product.BAHTThe baht slid 1 percent to 32.15 per dollar, its lowest since August 2010 as offshore funds sold it.The 10-year Thai government bond yield jumped to 4.21 percent, its highest since March 2010. Five-year debt yield rose to 3.79 percent.One Thai bank trader in Bangkok said there’s ‘’extensive panic-buying’’ of the dollar, which he expects to strengthen further against the baht.The Thai currency has room to slide to 32.425, the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement of its appreciation between 2009 and 2013.But the central bank was suspected of selling dollars to reduce volatilities, not to defend specific levels, limiting the baht’s downside, traders said.RUPIAHThe rupiah fell 0.5 percent in the local interbank market to 10,805 to the greenback, its weakest since April 2009.The Indonesian currency stayed under pressure from month-end dollar demand by local importers and as Jakarta equities fell. Five- and 10-year bonds yields extended their rises.Traders say investors are keeping an eye on the 11,000 level, feeling it is just a matter of time before the rupiah weakens past that support line despite continuous intervention by the central bank.Some banks already placed dollar offers above 11,000 and some deals were traded there, the traders said.“Custodian banks still need to buy dollar, given continuous capital outflows,’’ said a Jakarta-based trader.“11,500 will be the next level people will watch,’’ the trader added.PESOThe Philippine peso lost as much as 1.2 percent to 44.17 per dollar, its weakest since June 21, on catch-up selling after market closures.Financial markets were closed from Monday through Wednesday due to heavy rains and a holiday. On those days, most Asian peers fell.On Thursday, Manila shares at one point were down more than 6 percent.The peso recovered some of initial losses on remittance inflows and caution over possible central bank intervention to support the currency.Still, the Philippine currency is expected to weaken further, traders said.‘’If funds continue to flow out of emerging markets, the peso will not be immune,’’ said a foreign bank trader in Manila.The won initially lost 0.8 percent to 1,126.7 per dollar, its lowest since Aug. 2, as investors added to dollar holdings on higher US yields.KOREAN WONBut the South Korean currency recovered much of its early losses thanks to the upbeat August HSBC flash Purchasing Managers’ Index for China,longchamp le pliage, South Korea’s top overseas market.Also, a finance ministry official said there has been no sign of any Asian central bank selling out of South Korea’s domestic bond markets.Some offshore funds covered short positions and domestic exporters bought the won for month-end settlements.“I doubt how much the won would fall from here. The current levels look pretty attractive to exporters,’’ said a senior foreign bank trader in Seoul. |
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