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 Posté le: Mar Oct 01, 2013 10:28 am Sujet du message: Liquefied natural gas |
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{Liquefied natural gas, expanded trade key to B.C. prosperity: Scotiabank chief economist}
Warren Jestin: U.S. recovery very positive for CanadaBy Richard ChuTue Sep 17,[url=http://www.moncler-sale.org]moncler sale[/url], 2013 12:01am PSTBC's economy has not performed as well as expected so far this year, but that is forecast to change in 2014.At a forum last week, Warren Jestin, Scotiabank's chief economist, predicted that B.C.'s economy would grow by between 2% and 2.5% next year, led primarily by continued growth in B.C.'s forestry sector and improving fundamentals in the global commodities market. While provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador will continue to be key economic drivers of growth in Canada, B.C. is expected to be pulled along with a strengthening U.S. economy projected to continue grow faster than Canada's in 2014.Jestin spoke with Business in Vancouver prior to the event. Q&AQ: What are the sources of B.C.’s economic growth prospects next year?A: While we look to Asia primarily for new markets, the U.S. recovery is very positive for Canada. Less so for B.C. because more of your exports go to other areas proportionally than to the U.S., but certainly beneficial for lumber and structural materials. That should be coming through more as we move into next year because if you look at what’s happening in the U.S., the U.S. consumer is finally ending the strike that’s been on for the last four years and are starting to spend more.Q: Is there any concern that the US Federal Reserve’s reduction in “quantitative easing” is going to hurt the U.S. real-estate market?A: I think it will temper the housing market, but the reality is there is four years of pent-up demand. There’s a bit of catch-up to do there, and the U.S. consumer will be there. As long as U.S. employment is growing, I don’t think mortgage rates are going to go up to the extent that it’s going to turn off the market.Q: Where do you see most of the job gains next year in B.C.?A: It’s always services. It’s the biggest chunk of the economy, no matter what people say. The resource sector, the forestry sector has seen some light. Natural gas projects,[url=http://www.moncler-sale.org]moncler outlet[/url], to the extent that they can get going,[url=http://www.moncler-sale.org]moncler on sale[/url], have the potential to create quite a few jobs in the construction industry. You may see the construction industry move ahead a little bit. There’s already a lot of commercial space that’s being put up. But do I expect a big acceleration in job growth? No.Q: Any other areas of growth?A: One thing that I’ve been struck by everywhere I go is that large cities are different than the regions they belong to. If you go to London [England], Prague or Budapest, the cities perform better because people are moving in and they have their own centre of gravity. I think the Vancouver area remains solid. One thing that I’d be hopeful is that within the large urban centres, and even in the surrounding regions, tourism does better.Q: Why tourism?A: The amount of dollars being spent on global tourism is staggering. We’ll probably get some more U.S. tourists back next year, but the gain now is from people who have never travelled before. The key is to get them to travel here; $100 billion was spent by China last year abroad in tourism. I think B.C., globally, has a very good product to sell.Q: What role does government play in creating jobs?A: Government can help. The government here has done a pretty good job in focusing on competitiveness. The B.C. government has done a very good job in making prudent assumptions. I go to some provinces where government is outspending a lot. B.C. potentially could have because the balance sheet is pretty clean here but chose not to.Q: What’s your view on the significance of the various energy projects and pipeline proposals in B.C.?A: You need to solve the natural gas issue because the world is expanding dramatically on LNG and in order to make LNG work, you need to have contracts. Australia is expanding rapidly in that area, and other countries are as well. But if you are looking at the really big unknowns for B.C., they revolve around pipelines and gas plants because decisions there and the timing there may have a material impact on the prosperity of this province. It’s as simple as that.•Tags: economy, employment,[url=http://www.moncler-sale.org]discount moncler jackets[/url], Warren Jestin, Asia, Scotiabank, economic growth, exports, mortgage,[url=http://www.moncler-sale.org]moncler down jackets[/url], tourism, natural gas, energy
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